Rain god to help economy this Monsoon

Rain god to help economy this Monsoon

India is likely to get "normal" monsoon rains, according to the first official forecast of the season by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The IMD on Tuesday said there would be good distribution of rainfall across the country and it will receive 96 per cent of the long period average. "However, adequate rainfall in the second half of the season would remain important for yields", it said. Partly due to unfavourable rainfalls and reservoir levels, the GVA for crops contracted by 2.2 per cent in 2016, she pointed out. The contribution of agriculture to the gross domestic product (GDP) is around 18 percent.

"The impact of monsoon dynamics, as well as other inflation risks such as the goods and services tax, won't be clear for at least a few more months, which suggests a high likelihood of a prolonged pause for the policy rate. The RBI is likely to focus on liquidity management measures in the next few policies", he said in a statement.

"The monsoon forecast is reassuring given all southern states in India are seeing a water crisis". Last year's monsoon was above average in much of the country, bringing relief to millions of rural farmers reeling from two years of drought. "A good, well-distributed monsoon will keep food inflation risk on the lower side and give RBI the elbow room to ignite growth by keeping liquidity accommodative", said Rupa Rrege Nitsure, group chief economist at L&T Finance Holdings.

North Korea celebrates 'Day of the Sun' with defiant show of might
An official from South Korea's Defence Ministry could not immediately confirm whether any of them represented a new type of ICBM. In his annual New Year's address, Kim said North Korea's preparations for an ICBM launch had "reached the final stage".

Last year, all IMD forecasts, except the one for July for all of India, were overestimates when compared to actual rainfall values. In India, the growth forecast for 2017 has been trimmed by 0.4 percentage point to 7.2 percent, primarily because of the temporary negative consumption shock induced by cash shortages and payment disruptions from the recent currency exchange initiative. The department, which used a combination of statistical and ocean atmospheric models, said both showed rainfall this year would be normal.

As the extreme sea surface temperature conditions over the Pacific particularly El Nino conditions over the Pacific (El Nino or La Nina) and positive IOD development over the equatorial Indian Ocean are known to have strong influence on the Indian summer monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the sea surface conditions over the Pacific and Indian oceans. For the year ended March 2017, the agricultural sector is estimated to have grown 4.2%. Positive condition are likely to be favorable for normal or above-normal rain.

Japanese brokerage Nomura believes that risks are skewed toward below-normal rains despite the IMD's normal rainfall prediction.

Related Articles

  • White House pushes uncertain bid to revive health care bill

    White House pushes uncertain bid to revive health care bill

    Congressional Republican leadership has struggled to make good on campaign promises to repeal and replace Obamacare . But in a bid for conservative support, states would be allowed to obtain federal waivers to abandon that obligation.

    How Dortmund bus bomber hoped to make millions

    The 43-year-old, Dortmund manager since 2015, said today that it was "a good sign" that a breakthrough had been made in the case. They say it was filled with "contradictions and inconsistencies" and that there's "no indication" it was sent by the suspect.

    Delhi police issues lookout notice against Dinakaran amid AIADMK merger talks

    When persistently asked about their strength in the Assembly, Jayakumar said "Everyone including Chief Minister are on board". The poll body has frozen the AIADMK's two leaves symbol with two factions - one led by party General Secretary V.K.
  • US Forces Kill ISIS Leader Blamed For Turkey Nightclub Attack

    US Forces Kill ISIS Leader Blamed For Turkey Nightclub Attack

    Turkish police arrested Abdulkadir Masharipov, the main suspect in the attack, on 17 January after a huge manhunt. Uzbeki was considered an associate of Islamic State's self-proclaimed caliph, Abu Bakr.
    National Football League  schedule leaks: Packers host Seahawks in opener

    National Football League schedule leaks: Packers host Seahawks in opener

    Ten days apart, we learned of the schedules for the Green Bay Packers for the 2017 preseason and regular season, respectively. In Week 10 , Green Bay will face the Bears in Chicago, a place they have won in the regular season each of the last six years.
    Tennis superstar Serena Williams' pregnancy rocks the Women's Tennis Association Tour

    Tennis superstar Serena Williams' pregnancy rocks the Women's Tennis Association Tour

    Nobody was thinking about her and then BOOM! - she knocks out two top-ten players in a tournament (Mary Pierce and Monica Seles). Bush Novak said she had no information about Williams' social-media accounts or why the image had been removed.
  • Elon Musk Says Neuralink Will Aid in Human 'Memory Enhancement'

    Elon Musk Says Neuralink Will Aid in Human 'Memory Enhancement'

    A long post on the website Wait But Why , written by Tim Urban , lays out the background of the company, its team and its plans to develop what are known as brain-machine interfaces.
    Ofcom to force BT to open up tunnels and poles

    Ofcom to force BT to open up tunnels and poles

    Ofcom is also considering changes to how BT handles drop wires, the final connection between a pole (or duct) and the customer. Ofcom is proposing that other telecom providers should be able to lay fiber using BT's ducts and poles as easily as BT itself.

    EIA raises USA oil production outlook, cuts oil price forecast

    Crude oil for May delivery slid $0.29 to $53.11 a barrel after reaching a one-month high of $53.76 a barrel in morning trading. After breaking a six-day gaining streak on Wednesday, crude oil prices opened lower on April 13 but regained strength.
  • Two executions of murderers halted hours before they were due to die

    Bruce Ward and Don Davis had originally been the first of eight Arkansas inmates scheduled to die within 11 days of each other. A death row inmate in the USA state of Arkansas ate what could be his last meal on Monday amid legal wrangling over his fate.

    Egyptian-American woman freed in Egypt goes home on US military plane

    She was in Egypt helping poor children but was arrested on human trafficking charges during a Egyptian crackdown on activists. Hijazi was released from jail on Tuesday.
    Senate confirms Trump pick Neil Gorsuch to Supreme Court

    Senate confirms Trump pick Neil Gorsuch to Supreme Court

    Democrats reacted mainly to the use of the nuclear option to clear the way for Gorsuch's confirmation. He can then prepare for the court's next round of oral arguments, starting on April 17.